With the Golden Globes a mere hour away (follow me on Twitter.com/iamwesley for live tweeting) I tried to jot down my thoughts on who will win, and who should. I’m going to preface my thoughts by saying that the nominations themselves are flawed. Specifically in television, Zach Braff, Kyle Chandler, Connie Britton and Amy Poehler should all be walking away with wins in their respective categories. But not one is nominated. The HFPA love big name celebrities and they’re swayed by trends, which allows for people like Courtney Cox to get nominated for the rather insipid Cougar Town.
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Nominees: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, Up in the Air
Who Will Win: Avatar
Who Should Win: Up In The Air
Why: If you read my pieces regularly you know that I have nothing but high praise for Jason Reitman’s Up In The Air, but I don’t think it’s flashy enough for the Golden Globes. Avatar is exactly the type of movie that they love because it made bank and because the word “revolutionary” has been thrown around when referring to it.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Nominees: Emily Blunt (The Young Victoria), Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side), Helen Mirren (The Last Station), Carey Mulligan (An Education), Gabourey Sidibe (Precious)
Who Will Win: Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side)
Who Should Win: Emily Blunt (The Young Victoria)
Why: I haven’t seen enough of these films to be truly impassioned about who wins this category. But, I do know who I don’t want to win and that’s Sandra Bullock. Unfortunately, my gut says that’s precisely what’ll occur. I’d like to see Emily Blunt win but to be completely honest, anyone other than Bullock will be a relief.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Nominees: Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart), George Clooney (Up in the Air), Colin Firth (A Single Man), Morgan Freeman (Invictus), Tobey Maguire (Brothers)
Who Will Win: Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)
Who Should Win: George Clooney (Up in the Air)
Why: Though Bridges is traditionally the bridesmaid, it seems like this is his year to be the groom. After a series of wins, his most recent coming on Friday night at the Critics Choice Awards, Bridges is the odds on favorite. I thought Maguire turned in an admirable performance in Brothers and I laud the HFPA for his nomination. But, I enjoyed the subtly of Clooney’s performance in Up in the Air too much to give it to anyone else.
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Nominees: (500) Days of Summer, The Hangover, It’s Complicated, Julie & Julia, Nine
Who Will Win: (500) Days of Summer
Who Should Win: (500) Days of Summer
Why: Conventional wisdom says that Nine will win this award will all of its glitz, glam and star power but given the film’s terrible reviews I think the HFPA will be hesitant to hand it such a prestigious award. Neither of Meryl’s films are strong enough to win and The Hangover is probably too raunchy. This leaves (500) Days, which, not so coincidentally, should win given how delightful it was.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Nominees: Sandra Bullock (The Proposal), Marion Cotillard (Nine), Julia Roberts (Duplicity), Meryl Streep (It’s Complicated), Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)
Who Will Win: Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)
Who Should Win: Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)
Why: Another chance for Sandra Bullock to win, and for me to complain about how much I dislike her. Seriously though, no one beats Meryl Streep these days except possibly Meryl Streep. So, like it or not, she’ll win for one of her films. Kudos to Marion Cotillard for being the best thing about Nine.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Nominees: Matt Damon (The Informant!), Daniel Day-Lewis (Nine), Robert Downey Jr. (Sherlock Holmes), Joseph Gordon-Levitt (500 Days of Summer), Michael Stuhlbarg (A Serious Man)
Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis (Nine)
Who Should Win: Joseph Gordon-Levitt (500 Days of Summer)
Why: Damon and Downey Jr. don’t really stand a shot in this category, the latter probably shouldn’t have been nominated to begin with. In Zach Galifainakis’ absence this category is almost a lock for Daniel Day-Lewis, the HFPA’s poster boy. Stuhlbarg and Levitt were both good in their roles but it was Levitt’s boyish charm that won me over.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Penelope Cruz (Nine), Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air), Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air), Mo’Nique (Precious), Julianne Moore (A Single Man)
Who Will Win: Mo’Nique (Precious)
Who Should Win: Anna Kendrick (Up In The Air)
Why: A rather tough category, more so than either of the Leading Actress categories perhaps, it appears as though Mo’Nique has the momentum going into the Globes necessary to win. Julianne Moore should’ve submitted for Lead Actress and Cruz isn’t a real contender. Between the two ladies from Up In The Air I preferred Kendrick. In fact, I spent the better part of the last month trying to land an interview with the budding star, though the chances of it happening are looking slim at this point.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Matt Damon (Invictus), Woody Harrelson (The Messenger), Christopher Plummer (The Last Station), Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones), Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)
Who Will Win: Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)
Who Should Win: Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)
Why: This is a one man race, no one matched Christoph Waltz’s performance in Basterds. No one came close.
Best Animated Feature Film
Nominees: Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, Coraline, Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Princess and the Frog, Up
Who Will Win: Up
Who Should Win: Up
Why: It’s Pixar. It’s heartfelt. It’s a shoe in, and rightfully so!
Best Director – Motion Picture
Nominees: Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker), James Cameron (Avatar), Clint Eastwood (Invictus), Jason Reitman (Up in the Air), Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)
Who Will Win: James Cameron (Avatar)
Who Should Win: Quentin Tarantino (Inglorious Basterds)
Why: It would be neat to see Bigelow receive a rare win for female directors but, much like the Best Picture Award, I expect the HFPA to go with the flashy pick AKA Cameron. I liked Reitman’s work but something about Tarantino’s Basterds won me over.
Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
Nominees: Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell (District 9), Mark Boal (The Hurt Locker), Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds), Nancy Meyers (It’s Complicated), Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner (Up in the Air)
Who Will Win: Mark Boal (The Hurt Locker)
Who Should Win: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner (Up In The Air)
Why: The Globes don’t subdivide the screenplay category into adapted and original, which is pretty ludicrous when you think about it. Almost as ludicrous is Nancy Meyers’ nomination in this category. Reitman and Turner deserve the win and stand a good chance of taking it, but Boal is a dark horse who may overtake them.
Best Television Series – Drama
Nominees: Big Love, Dexter, House, Mad Men, True Blood
Who Will Win: Mad Men
Who Should Win: Mad Men
Why: Mad Men is a boring pick and its win will be equally unexciting, but it deserves to win given the season it just turned in.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series – Drama
Nominees: Glenn Close (Damages), January Jones (Mad Men), Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife), Anna Paquin (True Blood), Kyra Sedgwick (The Closer)
Who Will Win: Glenn Close (Damages)
Who Should Win: January Jones (Mad Men)
Why: A truly peculiar category dominated by shows I don’t watch. Paquin won last year, despite how mediocre her performance is, but she isn’t likely to repeat. Margulies is a filler nominee as is Sedgwick. Glenn Close is probably the odds of favorite simply because she’s Glenn Close. But I hope that January Jones gets the recognition she deserves.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series – Drama
Nominees: Simon Baker (The Mentalist), Michael C. Hall (Dexter), Jon Hamm (Mad Men), Hugh Laurie (House), Bill Paxton (Big Love)
Who Will Win: Michael C. Hall (Dexter)
Who Should Win: Hugh Laurie (House)
Why: Michael C. Hall had some stellar material to work with on Dexter and that will more than likely propel him to a win over other repeat nominees like Hamm, Paxton and Laurie. Simon Baker is a waste of space as far as I’m concerned. I’d love to see Laurie win after this season’s premiere episode but I don’t think it’s in the cards.
Best Television Series – Musical or Comedy
Nominees: 30 Rock, Entourage, Glee, Modern Family, The Office
Who Will Win: Glee
Who Should Win: The Office
Why: Neither 30 Rock nor Entourage has been strong enough this past year to justify a win. Modern Family doesn’t live up to it’s own hype. The Office is still funny but in the eyes of the HFPA it’s no longer “fresh.” That leaves Glee for the win.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy
Nominees: Toni Collette (United States of Tara), Courtney Cox Arquette (Cougar Town), Edie Falco (Nurse Jackie), Tina Fey (30 Rock), Lea Michele (Glee)
Who Will Win: Edie Falco (Nurse Jackie)
Who Should Win: Tina Fey (30 Rock)
Why: This category is infuriating to me for a number of reasons. Cougar Town is not a good show and Courtney Cox Arquette’s over acting is predominantly why. Nurse Jackie isn’t a comedy and thus Edie Falco shouldn’t be considered. Lea Michele is nice enough but she didn’t really warrant a nomination for her work. That leaves Fey and Collette and between the two I suppose I’d rather see Fey win.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy
Nominees: Alec Baldwin (30 Rock), Steve Carell (The Office), David Duchovny (Californication), Thomas Jane (Hung), Matthew Morrison (Glee)
Who Will Win: Alec Baldwin (30 Rock)
Who Should Win: Steve Carell (The Office)
Why: The work that Carell did during the Michael Scott Paper Company arch last season was pretty darn awesome but it’s likely that Baldwin will win again this year. Like Nurse Jackie, Hung isn’t really a comedy. And, like Lea Michele, Matt Morrison doesn’t really deserve to be nominated.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Nominees: Jane Adams (Hung), Rose Byrne (Damages), Jane Lynch (Glee), Janet McTeer (Into the Storm), Chloe Sevigny (Big Love)
Who Will Win: Jane Lynch (Glee)
Who Should Win: Chloe Sevigny (Big Love)
Why: The supporting categories for TV are a real hodgepodge as demonstrated by the nominees in this category. Lynch will win and her acceptance speech will be great, but Sevigny was magnificent last season in Big Love and thus more deserving.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Nominees: Michael Emerson (Lost), Neil Patrick Harris (How I Met Your Mother), William Hurt (Damages), John Lithgow (Dexter), Jeremy Piven (Entourage)
Who Will Win: Jeremy Piven (Entourage)
Who Should Win: Neil Patrick Harris (How I Met Your Mother)
Why: After all these years it would seem unwise to pick against Piven but I’m still holding out for a NPH win.
